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The Number 10 leadership race heats up
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As the Conservative leadership contest heats up, Tory ad man turned chief executive of London Advertising Michael Mosyinski gives his candid review of the candidates’ campaign videos, and makes his predictions for who will emerge triumphant.
The first thing to understand is that the candidates are currently targeting the current Conservative Party MPs to ensure they are one of the two who are shortlisted to go to a vote of the 160,000 party members at the end of August. A savvy campaign would position their candidate as the one most likely to win the votes of the general public, as that is what both MPs and the members ultimately want.
However, as we will see, most have focused on immediate tactical messages that will sway different parts of the party on issues such as taxation and Brexit. As there are several candidates from different political wings of the party, from One Nationers to free marketers, this means the candidates are trying to gain market share from within their own tribe, as well as position themselves to pick up from other candidates knocked out during the process.
The other thing I would say is that these have all been put together in an exceptionally short period of time (although some of the candidates have clearly been preparing for this election for some time – and in Rishi’s case got found out).
I have a clear vision for our country and economy - and the experience and resolve to deliver it.https://t.co/koPyqw4wIG#lizforleader pic.twitter.com/V9jENJmyj6
— Liz for Leader (@trussliz) July 11, 2022
Talking head; tinkly piano music; intercuts of looking Prime Ministerial – her video has all the ingredients for a pitch for the top job. But I am not sure what the recipe is? It is competently put together and the theme ‘Trusted to Deliver’ is at least a branded device. Liz has strong support from the members, so her focus is to get into the last two by making the case to MPs that she is an electoral asset for the party. Unfortunately, as my own private poll of 2,000 voters showed, she currently would do no better than Boris would have done. As she had relatively few ‘don’t knows,’ it will be hard for her to make the claim that once she can make her case to the country she will be able to lead the party to a victorious fifth term.
His campaign video is slick (perhaps too slick) and his theme ‘Ready for Rishi’ is all about him rather than the party or the country. It also sounds like the name for a new range of fast food. Rishi in January was a shoo-in for the top job as his star was in the ascendancy with the public, but the Partygate fine and issue with his wife’s non-dom status have combined to make him more unpopular with the voters than Boris. News that he had registered his campaign website in January has not endeared him to the members, and the fact he stabbed the leader in the back via his resignation means that I do not think he will win a members ballot, despite the fact he has hit the ground running and garnered the most number of MPs to support him at this stage in the process. In past leadership elections the front runner usually falls before the final hurdle.
Our leadership has to change. It needs to become a little less about the leader and a lot more about the ship. https://t.co/2O8T762DMT#pm4pm pic.twitter.com/Cib1w0sPBO — Penny Mordaunt (@PennyMordaunt) July 10, 2022
This has a strikingly different approach as 95% of the narrative is via a third-party voiceover, who talks about the nature of leadership and values over a music track of Vow To Me Thy Country. This was Maggie’s favorite song, so is clearly making a play for Penny taking her baton on. The video culminates in a photo of Penny and her voice saying in two lines why she is standing, including a bizarre line about teamwork in a post-Boris world (“leadership needs to be less about the leader and more about the ship”). Overall, I would rate this as a very refreshing approach, apart from one sad fact: the intro voiceover sounds like a 1950s government information film, and whoever wrote the script gets an A* in patronizing. Penny is another candidate who will do very well with the members (STOP PRESS: latest YouGov poll just out shows her as their favorite), but she could struggle to get enough MPs. In my June poll, Penny scored very well with the public, so in her canvassing of MPs she should be pounding that message like a Ukrainian HIMAR on a Russian Command Post.
Tom’s video is very straightforward: talking to the camera in one take with no fancy graphics or even a cut. It is unfortunate that his demeanor and the setting come across as so funereal and depressing. His pitch seems to be based on cutting taxes (like all the candidates, apart from Rishi who will do so later) and the fact he has a 10-year plan, but so far he has no evidence of what that is. Tom is someone who was forthright in his opposition to Boris from the outset, so never had a ministerial position. He has pivoted that lack of experience into a strength in his campaign theme ‘For a clean start.’ He has surprisingly high recognition and positive ratings among the public, perhaps arising from his one famous speech about Afghanistan. With Ben Wallace not standing, Tom has the highest rating with the public in my poll and is quite liked by the membership, but will be unlikely to secure enough MPs to get on the ballot.
I'm standing to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister. I have the experience and the vision to get Britain back on track. And I don’t buckle under pressure. #Suella4Leader pic.twitter.com/OpKo888GCI — Suella Braverman MP (@SuellaBraverman) July 12, 2022
I was really surprised by her campaign video – while not having anything new to offer in terms of format, she came across as genuine, authentic and likeable. This last attribute is probably the most important for this sort of video and made a positive of not looking too polished or produced – rather like the advice from Martin Jones to agencies when they used to make their AAR reel (remember them?). She links her personal story in a way that ties in directly to the challenges facing the voters, and which have informed her political views. You might not like them, but she comes across well – highly likeable, and full of energy. Of all the videos this one made me change my perception of her candidature. She is getting articles in The Spectator plugging her heavily (you may not read it, but Tory MPs and members do). Could Suella be the upset candidate that wins, though? This is definitely a video to watch.
https://t.co/cvgUlumlne — Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) July 12, 2022
Her campaign video as such seems to be a film of her launch event, with her talking at a podium to some supporters and the media. Kemi’s pitch is a refreshing alternative, especially given the reputation of her predecessor, to “bring back honesty into politics.” As with Suella, she talks with a freshness – and it would seem an honesty that is different. I think many will agree that the country needs an honest conversation about the balance between tax and spend, as the consequence of ‘cakeism’ is a cost-of-living crisis and rampant inflation. Kemi is another surprising candidate who was not well known prior to this leadership election, but is doing very well in the latest YouGov poll of Conservative members, coming in second after Penny Mordant. Although Kemi is unlikely to win the MP vote, she has used the leadership campaign to rapidly increase her standing in the party – and we can expect her to take a senior place in cabinet, whoever wins.
Oops. I almost forgot to include Jezza, I mean Jeremy. Unfortunately for him, that is an issue he has with much of the party in this election. Runner-up to Boris in 2019 and a late convert to Brexitism, he has the odor of yesterday’s man about him, without the charisma and dynamism to overturn it. His pitch that he was “the only major candidate from outside the Boris government” was doomed to failure as half the party and members still supported Boris. So, the idea that after all the froth of the Boris years the party and country need a serious politician was never going to cut the mustard. I sense the party was in a mood for someone new and fresh.
I’m a campaigner and a doer – and I will deliver for you as the next Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/Nl0OAIe9rn — Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) July 11, 2022
Shame he has pulled out of the race. He was the one candidate with a value proposition that squarely talked to the MPs – “I can help you win your seat” – which was fair enough. He also had a consistent creative theme of “I can,” which unfortunately came across as a hybrid of Obama and Bob the Builder – especially given he wore the obligatory hard hat in the video.
From the little boy who spoke no English to a husband, father, self-made businessman, vaccines minister, education secretary, and now Chancellor of the Exchequer. With a plan to deliver, and a track record of success, I am running to be your next leader. pic.twitter.com/KHqOBt0ZFU — Nadhim Zahawi (@nadhimzahawi) July 12, 2022
Nadhim was another candidate with a powerful backstory, which he used to full advantage in his video – the penniless Iraqi immigrant welcomed by Britain, if not by several of his school classmates, and who has ‘lived the British dream’ as evidenced by the fact he is the richest MP in Parliament. His pitch was simple: he wanted to provide the opportunity for other people in this country to live their British dream too. His policies to cut taxes, increase defense spending and make the most of the opportunities arising from Brexit are popular with MPs. The team behind his campaign chose to use him to tell his story to presumably give him more face time, but I was left wondering whether it would not have been better to have had someone else wax lyrical about his impressive delivery of the vaccine program?
In summary, the most extraordinary aspect of this election is that there are only two white males in it (who are not going to win) and that no one is concerned about race. People complain about the paucity of talent going into politics, but the fact that so many of these candidates come from immigrant, state school backgrounds and have something new to say is a reason for optimism. As they themselves say, it is a symbol of what makes this country great.
Rishi Sunak seems to have built enough momentum to get to the magical 120 votes to win a place on the membership ballot. The real battle is on the right between Liz Truss and Penny Mordant. YouGov’s poll today among members shows that Penny beats all contenders and, as enough MPs want Sunak to be beaten, I believe the Brexit MPs will coalesce around her.
But most fundamentally, Penny can show MPs that she has significantly more appeal to the voting public than Liz.
Rishi in January would have delivered the party its best possible result in a general election, but after recent events he was polling even worse than Boris, as did Liz.
Between the three, Penny has a significant advantage with the wo/man on the Clapham Omnibus.
So, my prediction: Rishi v Penny in the membership ballot, with Penny emerging triumphant.
