Warc Consensus Ad Forecast predicts 4% rise in global ad spend in 2013
Marketing intelligence service Warc’s latest Consensus Ad Forecast indicates that global advertising spend is set to increase by four per cent in 2013, a downgrade of -0.9pp from August’s forecast.
Based on a weighted average of ad spend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team and other industry bodies, Warc predicts ad spend will grow more rapidly in 2014 rising some 5.5 per cent.
Russia, China and Brazil are predicted to record the biggest increase in ad spend over 2013 with all media growth of 12.3 per cent, 10.9 per cent and 9.8 per cent respectively. Of the 13 markets surveyed 11 are forecast for growth in ad spend throughout the year.
With the exception of Brazil, which is likely to be boosted by upcoming major sporting events in 2014 and 2016, all countries have seen expectations lowered since the last Consensus Forecast in August 2012.
Spain and Italy are expected to be the lowest performers this year, with expected declines of 2.8 per cent and 1.1 per cent respectively. Both, however, are expected to return to growth in 2014.
Online ad spend is the only channel expected to show growth in all 13 markets this year, with overall online spend predicted to rise by 13.8 per cent. All other media have also had expectations trimmed in recent months.
“"In 2012, the industry benefited from the Olympics and the US presidential election. In 2013, we're all keen to see how advertising holds up without these quadrennial factors. There are still risks for global economic growth. Marketers are not ready to adjust their cautious approach just yet,” commented Warc data editor Suzy Young.