In a series of Q&As, The Drum speaks to leading mobile industry insiders to get their views on the big issues driving the space.
As part of The Drum's latest mobile supplement published today (Friday 8 November), we are publishing a series of articles exploring the big issues in mobile marketing.In this article, as we come to the end of the year, members of the mobile marketing industry share their predictions for mobile in 2014.James Hilton, CEO, M&C Saatchi Mobile
When looking at the iOS/handsets I can see Android gaining more ground over Apple and Windows attaining higher market share. To me, the reasoning for the Windows growth is down to the Nokia Lumia. This device is extremely advanced and is deservingly gaining increased consumer attention. In terms of mobile media, programmatic buying will increase and I think Facebook will become even more dominant. I believe mobile tracking will be further integrated into larger holistic tracking solutions which will provide brands greater transparency. With regards to technology, I believe Google Glasses and Smart Watches will provide additional highly engaging mobile formats.Simon Hathaway, president, shopper marketing and retail operations, Cheil Worldwide
Mobile will be all about searching, shopping and sharing. Our research show that 50 per cent of people buying smartphones in 2013 considered it a shopping device – in other words, shopping was specific criteria when it came to choice of smartphone. That number will only increase and a direct result will be the increased use of mobile to purchase.Retailers will start to realign their loyalty, promotion and even payments through the mobile device. It will be the tool that enables them to deliver a retail experience that is everywhere, instant and personal. The mobile has replaced the land bank in the retail space race. Location is no longer about a store in every community, but a shopping app on every mobile.James Connelly, co-founder and managing director, Fetch
In 2014, we will hopefully see the definition of mobile evolve and broaden. We will be differentiating between smart and non-smart devices. Today, the smartest consumer machines are smartphones, desktop computers and laptops. Everything else, from TVs to toasters, is not as smart in comparison. What’s going to change in 2014 is the widespread proliferation of wirelessly enabled machines that are connected to the smartphone as the central hub. More devices will go mobile, hence changing the current definition of the mobile. Smartphones will increasingly become the ‘mothership’ that controls everything else. In terms of OS, 2014 is unlikely to see a clear contender for third place. The current OS marketplace is dominated by Android and iOS, and this will continue to be the case. HTML5 is making a comeback, so things should look interesting for Windows and Blackberry in that fight for third place in the ecosystem. The likes of Tizen, Mozilla and Jolla are all running on open source platforms – this means not only will they create more competition for Windows and Blackberry, but their open source platform will drive down costs of smartphones.Paul Coggins, VP Mobile, Ebuzzing
Where do I start? In 2014 tablets are likely to be the device of choice; users wanting entertainment on the internet will be picking up a tablet, and the tablet market will grow faster than ever due to the introduction of budget tablets to the market. Brands will be moving TV and video budgets towards mobile and will be looking to fully utilise multiscreen data. I believe mobile data and reporting will become essential for advertisers, which is why we’ve concentrated on making our comprehensive online analytics dashboard available for mobile campaigns. We are going to see much more innovation in mobile video advertising. Up until very recently the advertising industry hasn’t been able to figure out which advertising formats are effective on mobile. We’re also likely to see an increasing integration of screens. Programs now exist, like Keshet Media Group’s Rising Star, which allow users to interact with their TV using a mobile app. In this case the viewer can vote for their favourite act in real time using a mobile device. This signals unprecedented opportunities for advertisers looking to traverse the second screen divide and I’m sure we’ll be seeing exciting developments in this area in 2014.Victor Malachard, CEO and co-founder, Adfonic
Programmatic buying will grow in significance. The automated buying of inventory in real-time at the level of each impression has made huge inroads, especially in the US where it has just tipped over 50 per cent of display share on desktop, with mobile not far behind. Our inventory access reached this tipping point in October 2012 and today it accounts for 80 per cent of demand. Volumes will only ramp up in 2014. It will also start to include more and more traditional 'premium' inventory as these publishers start to understand how programmatic can benefit them too. The mobile advertising ecosystem will experience fundamental shifts. Key issues will be around how media buyers may struggle to stay relevant when programmatic simply sniffs out the right inventory at scale; how trading desks and agencies may need to find stronger points of differentiation; and whether blind ad networks can continue to survive, or whether they will have to make tough decisions about moving to the buy or sell side. M-commerce will grow. In the US, m-commerce is already mainstream, with data from Internet Retailer suggesting that mobile retail sales for the 358 US merchants ranked in the Mobile 500 will grow about 67 per cent and reach $25.4bn, up from $15.2bn in 2012. In the UK there is lower penetration but it's growing quickly, doubling between Q2 2012 and 2013 from 11.6 per cent to 23.2 per cent of online sales according to the Interactive Media in Retail Group (IMRG) and Capgemini. Meanwhile, ICM Research suggests that one-third of internet users in Great Britain expect to buy with a mobile device in 2014. This will be driven by increasing confidence about security on smartphones, and 'joined up' campaigns that employ the best formats for mobile advertising such as rich media and video, and link to dedicated microsites that are designed to be used easily on smaller screens. More traction from video. According to eMarketer, US ad spending for mobile video is set to quadruple from this year’s $518m estimate to nearly $2.1bn in 2016. This represents a great opportunity for marketers to tie in video execution with TV as consumers use their mobiles as a second screen or, as Weve data suggests, increasingly as a first screen, particularly among nearly half of all 18-34 year-olds.Andy Beames, sales group head, BlisMedia
We’ll inevitably see further consolidation in the market. With a huge shift in buying towards programmatic, lots of the more established ad networks or tech players will want to keep up with this so I can see more of the smaller exciting emerging tech companies being acquired. Twitter’s move to take control of MoPub must have Facebook considering their next move.Mobile video will finally become a going concern for the mainstream. At the moment demand far outstrips supply and so sales teams can command huge CPMs. As supply grows, prices will level out and mobile video ads will become more widespread.2014 is set to be a huge year for tablets. There’s a flux of mid-spec, low priced tablets about to enter the market and so we’re about to see tablets move from being an indicator of an older, more affluent audience to being a device for the people.Abhay Singhal, co-founder, VP of global sales and MD EMEA, InMobiForget bridging (desktop to mobile), think mobile-first CRM
Mobile has taken over desktop in terms of media consumption already, and rather than an at-home and at-work device, it is a 24/7 life-device. Mobile gives marketers the broadest view of their consumers, and this means fundamentally acting on a mobile-first CRM strategy.Hyperlocal meets global
Mobile offers powerful hyperlocal marketing opportunities, but mobile is also the first global digital marketing platform. Digital advertising spending was concentrated in a handful of countries in the past, but now mobile opens up the whole world to marketers.Native advertising rules, and custom becomes the new standard
Consumers are responding well to highly contextual and customised mobile advertising experiences especially in-app and on smartphones. While a small but growing percentage of overall spending is going towards mobile native advertising – driven predominantly by Facebook and Twitter, we believe that the amount of spending and ad effectiveness that will come from native experiences will grow dramatically. This trend will not be limited to social ads, but will highlight a broader trend of making custom ad experiences the new standard. Mark Emmett, chief information officer, ResponseTap
This year saw smartphone use higher than ever before and in 2014 we expect marketers to get smarter about the way they target consumers, and the options they give their customers. I think we’ll see an increase in brands giving power back to the consumer in the way they interact and buy. Accurate attribution across channels and devices will become increasingly important to properly understand mobile trends and as a result, smarter analytics will become crucial.Tresilian Segal, head of marketing Northern Europe, Adobe Marketing Cloud Mobile enhances social
Mobile isn’t just a channel, it’s a strategy. In 2014, we’ll see mobile earn its place in the marketing mix, working closely alongside social. Social engagement, more often than not, is on a mobile device and brands can no longer ignore this. As the social and mobile world evolves, social marketing will grow with this as more brands begin to encourage their customers to talk about their experiences socially by 'checking-in', 'liking', 'sharing' and reviewing. The brands that are smart in how they achieve this will be the ones that succeed. Omni-channel strategy
People are now communicating through an abundance of channels and marketers need to respond to this. In 2014, it is likely we will see more brands develop a strong omni-channel strategy which incorporates a consistent message to the consumer across all channels, while communicating in the channel of their choice. Advertising
As user consumption migrates to mobile at a rapid pace, the challenge to advertisers will be how to measure and value interactions, and link them back to business results. Advertisers who already have transactional mobile sites and apps will be at an advantage. Publishers will need to create relevant and specific ad types for mobile; scaling down desktop formats is not the answer.Previous instalments of The Drum's mobile marketing series:Relevant, tailored and meaningful – how mobile data can influence consumer behaviourTips for brands looking to turn the ‘threat’ of showrooming into an opportunityWhy are brands not focusing enough of their attention on mobile?The Drum's Mobile supplement, sponsored by Millennial Media, is published today.