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Why the polls got it wrong again and why Donald Trump is now American president elect

Months ago, I tweeted that Donald Trump would win the GOP nomination, and would win the US Presidential election. And I kept on saying that.

My friends, colleagues and PRCA members said I was nuts. They told me that yes, I'd been right in saying that there'd be a Tory majority government. Later on, they told me that yes, I'd called Brexit right too. But that no, Hillary Clinton would win.

That response was consistent, forceful, and sincere.

And wrong.


Last night, we put on two events. The first was the PRCA National awards. The second was the PRCA Election Party, hosted by Connect Communicatons and my friend, its CEO and PRCA board member Andy Sawford.

Andy spoke and then introduced me. I said that I thought all the polls were wrong. I revealed I had placed a five figure sum that Trump would win, BEFORE the FBI took a turn for the bizarre...And the people around me listened to me and laughed. And then slowly changed their attitude...


There are two reasons, and I cited each of them last night

First, pollsters are simply wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Whatever lessons were learned previously are no longer relevant. Very simply, polling companies don't ask the right people the right questions. And they can't disaggregate the results that they do receive

More fundamentally, is this: There is a bubble. A bubble of people inside SW1. Inside Washington and New York. They meet only people who hold their views. They find it impossible to imagine that other views exist. They are wealthy, well-connected individuals. And they never meet 90% of the real world, apart from paying them for doing their laundry and cleaning their homes.

Some will hate that caricature. But it's accurate.

The Comms? Well Trump simply hit emotions his opponent didn't. He hammered home his messages. And yes they were simple. But clearly effective. In the end, Mrs Clinton wheeled out pop stars and actors and in doing so, played to every single one of her weaknesses.

Neither candidate deserved to win many will say. But elections are about who crosses the line first -not who is perfect. There has to be one winner. However imperfect they might be. And that, this time, wasn't the 'perfect' person that the 'insiders' predicted.

I'm off to collect my winnings...And hope for the best.

Francis Ingham MPRCA is the director general of the PRCA.

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