Uber Marketing

Is it enough to just disrupt the market or will the Uber value bubble burst?

September 22, 2016 | 6 min read

I love Uber. I’m over Uber.

Bubble

Can Uber retain its valuation

The giant ride sharing service has become an iconic symbol of disruption in this new economy. I don’t want them to blacklist me with a bad rating, but I feel compelled to call us out (as an industry) for getting carried away by the company’s story and positioning Uber as an infallible services god.

I can understand how we got to this point. It is easy to get carried away by Uber (literally) as it certainly is a remarkable organisation. They addressed a series of consumer needs with a straightforward solution that removes the pain of calling a cab, the uncertainty of the cab’s arrival time, and the hassle of payment. Quite naturally, consumers flock to them. Every week in London an additional 30,000 people download the app and order their first car.

The company expands to a new city every five days on average and global booking revenue hit $5 billion in Q2, skyrocketing up 32 per cent from Q1.

But we must consider this remarkable growth into context and consider a more complete assessment of corporate performance. We’ve gotten so carried away by the potential, we’ve overlooked the present facts: Uber has lost a staggering $1.3 billion in the first half of 2016. This is the equivalent in size to all of Ocado’s revenue last year.

Uber’s most recent round of funding valued the company at a staggering $62.5 billion – more than all but nine companies on the FTSE 100. The below chart shows how Uber’s valuation compares to other well-known FTSE 100 companies.

It certainly begs the question as good as Uber may be, is it really worth more than virtually all British companies? One of the world’s leading experts in finance and equity valuation recently suggested the company is worth less than half that figure.

Can you imagine how quickly the narrative will change if investors begin to agree with that assessment and the company loses half its value?

We’ve gotten so carried away by the hype and ignored significant problem areas when it comes to Uber. Well known investor Peter Thiel called Uber "the most ethically challenged company in Silicon Valley."

The company faces considerable regulatory challenges and local resistance in certain markets which may inhibit growth. Plus, the industry is not the most attractive space right now with a range of players like Lyft jockeying for position. Not surprisingly, Lyft is not profitable either, and it has indicated it is okay with losses of $50 million a month as it races to acquire new customers.

We’re spectators in a battle to see which company can lose the most money.

But what does it mean if Uber has lost some of its lustre? We can learn some key lessons from the company’s performance and from our blind enthusiasm for its disruption.

First, let’s remember it’s the business model that matters most. Creative agencies can come up with disruptive ideas all day long, but those ideas must be profitable. We must spend more time working with our clients to analyse and improve the fundamental business model. In his critique of Uber, NYU professor Aswath Damodaran cuts straight to the point saying, “the business model that has brought these companies as far as they have in such a short time period are flawed”.

Second, remember you can be a disruptor and not be a winner. Simply causing chaos in an industry does not, by nature, equate to success; you must have a sustainable competitive advantage. In Britain there are 80 new companies started every hour, and each of these companies is looking to steal share from someone.

With the rapid pace of change, a company can be a hero one year and three years later be viewed as an afterthought. Not that long ago, Blackberry was the undisputed lead in mobile, but times have certainly changed as Apple dethroned Blackberry to take the winner’s position.

We are about to enter a time when the first wave of disruption has passed through most industries, and we increasingly see the disruptors themselves being disrupted.

Winning requires sustained financial performance. A great idea, wonderful buzz, a better user experience – these are all helpful elements, but it is the fundamental business economics that will lead to lasting success.

Uber has certainly experienced short-term success with customers and the financial markets; we’ll see if it can capitalize on that accomplishment to become profitable.

So, yeah, I still love Uber. I’ll continue to use it on a regular basis to get home after a late night out or on my way to the airport. But let’s not blindly cite them as a company for everyone to emulate.

In a world of disrupters and driverless cars, companies need to keep up or hit the road. “Taxi!”

Jim Mason is executive director of strategy and insight for Razorfish London.

Uber Marketing

More from Uber

View all

Trending

Industry insights

View all
Add your own content +