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Marketing Predictions

Houston, we don't have a problem – the predictability of marketing predictions

December 18, 2015 | 4 min read

Houston, we have a problem. 2016 is going to be predictably different to 2015. Maybe.

It's that time of year again where all good, bad, or indifferent commentators review the year that's gone and make wild predictions for the year ahead.

Lara O'Reilly, global advertising editor at Business Insider, tweeted earlier this morning 'is there anything more dull than reviews of the year'.

Jess Davies, once of The Drum – now Digiday editor in the UK – replied 'predictions of the year'.

Hmm.

Well, I'm afraid this commentator is as boringly predictable as you'd expect.

That said, I do think there's some worth in pausing for thought every now and then and reflecting on the changes going on all around us.

One of the best forecasts I've seen to date is from Hamish Thompson of Houston PR fame.

He's often seen parading the streets of London in his full astronaut gear which feels very of the moment this week.

Anyway, he argues the age of low-fi marketing is upon us.

He says not only are advertising revenues on the decline, but audiences are more resistant than ever to flagrant propaganda, or brands shouting offers at them wherever they look.

He adds: "We see the rise of ‘charitable thinking': brand initiatives that offer value to an audience without expectation of return.

Time is also speeding up.

"The route of an idea from genesis to execution can now be minutes.

"In this arena, consultancies that are expert at delivering ideas swiftly, at low cost and with precision are the best bets for brands."

And by consultancy Hamish is clearly referring to PR firms. But adds:

"If I was still working in-house, I would be moving all of my poker chips to the ideas people."

Hamish is a proponent of the power of PR in a crowded marketing social media fuelled world.

"PR agencies, often an afterthought in budget discussions, are supremely comfortable and match-fit in a ‘less-is-more’ environment," he says.

"We are adept at making a little go a long, long, long, long way."

Absolutely right. The poor neighbour of our advertising colleagues, but as creative – if not more. Through constraint (limited budgets and resources) comes creative solutions to communications challenges.

It's a well-known fact that adversity can drive innovation.

Hamish's last point also highlights the largesse that still exists at the other end of the comms spectrum.

"In the last six months I have visited four ad agencies and in every case their foyers have been large and empty enough to fit our entire business at least four times over. I doubt this will last."

So, what will 2016 bring us that 2015 failed to?

Ad Age has five key trends:

  1. Messaging platforms will trump broadcast social networks
  2. Marketers will realise that Snapchat isn't social – it's TV
  3. Ad blocking turns all eyes to social
  4. The Hotel California effect will change the game (social networks are becoming closed systems where you can check out, but you can never leave)
  5. Social video will get more crowded and complicated

My prediction, for what it's worth, is that next year will be a little bit different to this year. But not that much.

My final forecast is I bet most of us won't look back a year from now to see whether I was right.

Houston, problem resolved. As you were.

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