MediaCom Edinburgh analysis: TV in 2012
Sean Japp, head of TV for MediaCom Edinburgh, offers the first of his bi-montly reports offering more understanding of TV as a medium. We shall update on market indications, look at programming, channels and also do some future gazing on where TV could be in a couple of years.
Digital Switchover completes in October 2012 when Ulster will be the last area to switch over to Digital from analogue. Digital penetration at the end of 2011 was 93% of homes in the UK, while expectations in 2012 are that 97% of homes in the UK will be digital. The other 3% don’t have a telly.
See image 1 in gallery
In 2011 viewing was split as follows:
According to BARB’s figures the average person watched linear TV for 28 hours, 14 minutes a week (4 hours 2 minutes per day.) How they watched that was averaged out over the following channels.
Share of Viewing by Channel (see image 2 in picture gallery)
Source: BARB/DDS – Audience: Individuals
Multi- Channel Share of Viewing by Saleshouse (see image 3 in picture gallery)
Source: BARB/DDS – Audience: Individuals
Sky took over the airtime sales for Dolphin’s kids’ channels from 5th January 2012, which will increase their share of the Multi-Channel market to around 41% if everything stands still in 2012. Sky’s investment into their product now outstrips everything that ITV, C4 and Five collectively spend and this will continue as they look to substantially increase their subscription levels from their holy grail of 10million homes. With the advent of their Anytime+ capability Sky’s group of channels now take more share of viewing than ITV1 and we expect this to grow further in 2012.
The Rise in Commercial Impacts (see image 4 in picture gallery)
Source: BARB/DDS – Audience: Individuals
Commercial impacts during 2011 were up 2.6% versus 2010, and have grown by a staggering 19.6% over the last five years to a new record high. The average viewer watched 47 advertisements per day during 2011 up from 46 in 2010.
2012 Market Expectations – by Audience – Inflation/Deflation (see image five in picture gallery)
Source: Group M/MediaCom
We are expecting significant inflation over the summer due to Euro 2012, Golden Jubilee and the Olympics. Annual inflation is around 1% on ABC1 Adults, 3.5% on 1634 Adults and 2% on Adults.
Top Commercial Programmes in 2011
Channel Date Programme Title 000 Inds TVR Inds
ITV1 11/12/11 The X Factor Results 12,089 21
ITV1 14/02/11 Coronation Street 11,780 20.6
ITV1 02/10/11 The X Factor 11,741 20.4
ITV1 04/06/11 Britain's Got Talent Result 11,354 19.8
ITV1 06/11/11 Downton Abbey 11,180 19.4
ITV1 13/11/11 I'm a Celebrity - Get Me out of Here! 11,096 19.3
ITV1 04/06/11 Britain's Got Talent 10,789 18.8
CH4 (Stagger) 08/02/11 Big Fat Gypsy Weddings 9,710 17
ITV1 24/10/11 Doc Martin 9,655 16.8
ITV1 09/01/11 Dancing on Ice 9,369 16.4
ITV1 13/01/11 Emmerdale 9,146 16
ITV1 12/11/11 The X Factor standby filler 8,929 15.5
ITV1 29/05/11 Scott & Bailey 8,307 14.5
ITV1 09/01/11 Wild at Heart 8,191 14.3
ITV1 02/02/11 Midsomer Murders 7,678 13.4
The Future of TV is Still Unwritten (and change may develop quicker than we expect…….)
TV advertising is as strong now as it has ever been, overall revenue in 2011 was nearly £3.5 billion (up 1.6% from 2010) and top performing programmes regularly deliver over 7 million viewers. This will continue in these austere times, where declining disposable income for consumers makes staying in on a Saturday night more attractive than being mugged for £4 a pint. Broadcasters will invest heavily in programming to ensure that the share of that £3.5billion pot stays where it is and doesn’t decrease or move to other broadcasters or other media channels.
Future Gazing
The future of Television has already been enabled – 47,000,000 Web Enabled TV’s will have been sold in Europe between 2010 and 2014. This new technology will bring new opportunities to advertisers, whether it be audience segmentation, hyperlocal targeting, alignment of disparate media types (linear/non-linear) and message management although these are by no means exhaustive opportunities. TV will be targeted on our terms where we can build our own set of targeting factors and no longer be bound by the BARB Panel. So, in effect we will buy impressions rather than impacts. Common delivery platforms will allow for better message alignment so we will know what consumers have seen and where they are in the sales cycle and we can work to 1 single OTS formula for all media.
As always, there will be three challenges to this innovation:
Auditing and Procurement
Fit for Purpose Formats
A Narrative for Clients
“What Does Good Look Like?”
There are currently no benchmarks, no legacy metrics and no effective or agreed currencies so we need to be careful on how we define what good looks like. Early adoption is fine, however this needs to be tempered on how effective the media is and whether the client’s commercials look as good on Ipads, Smartphones etc as they do on the TV Screen. Participation in this Brave New World requires confidence in the rigour that we currently use to ensure our media neutrality. How do we measure the commercial’s effectiveness in the Old World of Advertising Awareness, whether it is prompted or spontaneous? We will need to be bold, follow our gut feel and make a strong case for what it is we are trying to sell.
To conclude – we enter an uncharted land, technology will move on and our definition of TV Buying will change dramatically; however, we must ensure we don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater and continue to demand rigorous analysis of the effects of our media planning.
Plus ca change, plus cest la meme chose.