Do Asia Pacific markets care about the TikTok bans and will they follow the US?

Sean O'Brien, co-founder and managing partner of The Half Rhino, believes TikTok's enormous success in the Asia Pacific, specifically Southeast Asia (SEA), will ensure its future in the region.

"TikTok is already one of the world's largest retail marketplaces," says O'Brien, "while live commerce is well established in China, the rest of the world is just catching on.

"TikTok now generates over $1bn a month in gross media value in SEA alone, and this is growing at over 20% a month. By year end, TikTok Shop, largely driven by Live Video Shopping, will be driving billions of dollars of consumer spend monthly. Research has shown that SEA buyers on TikTok are spending less on other ecommerce channels, like Shopee and Lazada. This form of 'shoppertainment' is attracting younger spenders and has huge potential for brands across the region."

Rajesh Nanarpuzha, an associate professor in Marketing at India's IIM Udaipur, believes banning TikTok would only pave the way for copycats, which is precisely what happened in India.

"TikTok has shown what is possible," he says. "Technically, algorithms that drive TikTok have been honed and perfected over a period of time, reaching peak levels of efficiency.

"With a clear first-mover advantage, striking network effects, and technological superiority, TikTok would have been one of the most important social media platforms of the 21st century. However, when it is regulated out of a market, it leaves a void that competitors will begin to occupy.

"Content creators looking to engage with others in their subculture will look for alternatives. What used to be a latent consumer need (easily developing content to expand subcultures) is now apparent and obvious and has been shown to be possible. Consumers will now actively look for alternatives. In the absence of a clear substitute, multiple platforms might get different slices of the pie. A platform that meets the consumer need clearly might also end up as a first-choice alternative," says Nanarpuzha.

Prashant Saxena, the head of insights, Asia at Isentia, believes the app can learn from this experience in India - and now the US - to priortise building trust and transparency.

"Learning from its experiences in India and the US, TikTok must prioritize building trust through transparency about its data policies and collaborating with local governments. However, if the app can avoid a ban and maintain its user base, it could become the first consumer platform in the West to make video commerce a reality. The app's algorithm and billion-strong user base offer significant potential for expansion into commerce and payments.

"And if we look at its sister app Douyin in China, which has been monetizing short-form video search for years, we can see the potential for TikTok to offer hyper-local and hyper-personalized experiences for its users. Douyin has been successful in using video search to drive ticket sales and help users discover local activities, with merchants adapting their product offerings and services to be more "Douyin-able."

"TikTok's ability to master video search and unlock in-app commerce could provide an enormous opportunity for hyper-local and hyper-personalized lead generation for commerce. While other social media giants like Snap and Instagram have experimented with video search and in-app commerce, none have a proven, internal roadmap for expansion quite like TikTok. TikTok's potential for growth is significant, despite challenges over data privacy and geopolitical tensions," says Saxena.

Abhinay Bhasin, the head of product marketing & strategic account relationships, for Profitwheel, agrees the path forward lies in more integrated efforts from the app.

"I feel companies and governments should find ways to be more integrated in their approach in working together while keeping the security and protection of consumers at the forefront.

"There have been several case studies on products selling out entirely due to their virality on TikTok, like L'Oréal's Telescopic Mascara etc., making it a key driver of purchase. TikTok has pushed close to 2bn dollars in consumer spending in the US alone. It's also had an influence in shaping discussions around finance, blockchain and emerging tech for Gen Z's and has been a platform of information and content discovery," says Bhasin.

Gautam Reghunath, the co-founder of Talented India, believes the debate resembles "news-bait tech-nationalism".

"TikTok is a powerful tool with a real impact on young citizens. So, if seen as an extension of the Chinese state, which is difficult to argue against at this point, apps like TikTok can pose national security risks. In India, we've moved on to well-cloned substitutes. These are modern-day cultural amphitheatres. A lot of what is relevant in modern life is reflected on these platforms, and they're directly or indirectly responsible for significant value creation both for individuals and businesses," says Reghunath.

"Bill Maher has my favourite quote on this. "If you really want to get rid of TikTok, just have all the moms and dads get on it like Facebook," he adds.

Additional reporting by Amit Bapna and Preethi Ravi.