The international advertising market is expected to witness a deceleration in advertising growth to 4.8% from 5.7% recorded in 2018 before slipping back further to 3.9% by 2020.
GroupM has followed up its UK forecast issued last week with a broader brush look at the key trends subduing advertising spend. Chief among these are the implications of new barriers to global trade and macro-economic uncertainty in many major economies with China showing particular weakness while Germany and Japan also come off the boil.
The Worldwide Media Forecast spans 37 international again paints a rosy picture for both the UK and US markets with the latter growing at such a ‘remarkable’ pace that it is predicted to overtake Japan to snatch third position in the marketplace within five years.
To put this performance in perspective the UK has grown by 44% over the past five years while Germany grew by just 7%, propelling Britain from mere parity to a clear leader.
Growth is heavily weighted toward digital-first brands which now account for a 52% slice of the global market, (commanding a majority a full year ahead of expectations) rising to 60% in developed markets such as China, the U.K, Sweden and Denmark as advertisers capitalise on new consumer behaviours.
This market is increasingly consolidated among a small number of tech titans such as Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Booking.com, eBay, Facebook, IAC, JD.com, Netflix and Uber which account for $36bn in global spending.
According to GroupM television ad spend will total less than $65bn by year’s end in the US also.