New estimates put the share of all advertising now accounted for by digital ads at just 25%, far lower than the 50% previously supposed.
Figures compiled by Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak highlighted the significant disparity between prediction and reality which he attributes to a number of factors, all of which point to good news for Facebook and Google as they seek to grow their own businesses.
Between them the duopoly is driving over 80% of all online ad growth, leaving little room for competitors to find a toehold – although Nowak credits Snap as a surprise contender in the sector.
Snap has benefited from the introduction of new commercial ad units, helping to monetise a platform which now numbers 186 million active daily users.
Facebook and Google require no introductions of course, with the former reaping the rewards of the adoption and monetisation of its Stories format by over 1.25bn users across Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook itself. Google meanwhile can point to an impressive 2 billion YouTube users and has plans to monetise Google Maps.
Morgan Stanley, along with Goldman Sachs, helped to power Snap's successful IPO.