Over the last couple of weeks during the 2016 Upfronts, TV networks have showcased for advertisers a slate of high-profile shows set to premiere in the fall.
But which shows will survive their first seasons?
Peel, the smart remote technology company, predicted with 90 per cent accuracy (for the second straight year) which shows would be axed and which would be renewed for a second season.
The company analyzed the remote commands of its 150 million-plus registered users globally, and found that if a Fall 2015 premiere episode retained two-thirds or more of its viewers at the 15-minute mark, it would most likely survive its first season and be renewed for a second. This threshold worked to accurately predict survival for 22 of 24 network series that debuted last fall.
Fox’s ‘The Grinder’ did top the threshold, but had the lowest score on the app for “favorites” and “reminders” of any fall show; the show was not renewed. On the flip-side, ‘Scream Queens’ had the lowest initial tune-in score but had the second highest ratio of “favorites” and “reminders” after the premiere aired. It was unclear for awhile whether the show would be renewed, but it will indeed be back for a second season.
“This is the second year in a row we have achieved 90% accuracy in our predictions of winners and losers from the fall season based on the first 15 minutes of viewer dropoff,” said Peel co-founder and CEO Thiru Arunachalam. “It still amazes us but that shows the power of having a massive amount of viewer data points to draw upon.”