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Global ad market forecast subject to downward revision

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By John Glenday | Reporter

November 14, 2011 | 2 min read

International advertising spend is forecast to decline in nine out of 12 of the most important global markets – according to research compiled by Warc, a marketing intelligence service.

The forecast for 2011 predicts a slowdown across the board – save for Russia, Canada and Japan which are predicted to buck the negative trend.

Citing volatile economic conditions, specifically the Eurozone crisis, for the gloomy figures Warc is nevertheless assuming that the threat of European defaults will recede in 2012 – by no means a certainty.

Growth is being driven by the so called BRIC group, Brazil, Russia, India and China, with growth of as much as 16% expected even when predicted inflation is taken into account.

In Europe, by contrast, things look grim with a 7.4% decline in advertiser spend predicted in 2011 when measured at constant prices.

Suzy Young, Data Editor, Warc, said: "The crisis in the eurozone is continuing to create havoc for the world's financial markets, and it shows no sign of abating any time soon. As a result advertisers have become more and more cautious, even in markets outside Western Europe."

Forecast % change in year-on-year ad spend growth (2011)

Australia -0.8

Brazil -1.5

Canada 2.5

China 6.3

France -0.6

Germany -0.3

India 3.8

Italy -7.4

Japan -3.0

Russia 16.6

UK -0.9

US -0.6

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