Consumer Confidence Forecast – April 2011

Consumer confidence dropped 3 points in April to -31, its lowest score since April 2009 and is now firmly at a recession level. Since last May’s general election confidence has tumbled by13 points. All 5 sub-indices fell in April.

Outlook

The Royal Wedding and good weather may have given a boost to national spirits. May is historically the most optimistic month for consumers and a small rebound may occur in sentiment. Despite the headline index decline, job and inflation expectation measures improved slightly in April with slightly less strained household finances.

Around the UK…

Confidence fell in all UK regions in April apart from the Midlands (up 1 point to -29). In the South and Wales sentiment shed most points in the month – down 6 points and by 5 points to -31 and -38 respectively. In London sentiment fell 3 points to -29 – well below its 12 month average of-16 and a weak economic pointer. Despite sharp falls in sentiment in the South and east of England in recent months, the gap in confidence between the South and east of England and elsewhere in the UK remains.

Compiled in association with the Union Direct.

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