As part of The Digital Trading Awards Program US we hear from Gurman Hundal, Co-Founder, Media iQ Digital who talks about analyzing the election data and voter activity.
With the US presidential election inching towards November’s finale, what are the odds of Hillary Clinton becoming the next president of the United States, and becoming the most powerful woman in the world?
Do you think, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan will win American hearts and win him the advantage?
To understand both the political parties better, Media iQ analyzed data on Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, and on the Democratic and Republican Party to understand voter activity and their affinity towards each party.
Profile of Voters
While Clinton is popular among older and more affluent voters, and her loyalists mostly come from Law and Biotechnology sectors, Sanders appeals to the youth and less affluent voters. Sanders vote bank comes from the manufacturing and service sectors.
Clinton’s championing on women issues in this presidential election, has gained her an advantage with women 8% more likely to vote for her over Sanders.
Looking at the demographics of Trump's voters, it's mostly male, falling in the age group of 45 to 64 years of age, with another 36 percent being over 65 years old. His voters are 22% more likely to have a vocational education compared to his other supporters who are 19% more likely to have a secondary level education.
With regards to career, 55% of his voters are skilled tradesman, while 22% are more likely to be in manufacturing, with about 10% more likely to be in the service sector.
Media iQ data suggests that Bernie’s voters are most likely to download movies, most likely to bank at Chase, are most likely to shop at Trader Joe's.
Top 5 issues for voters and whom they will vote for
When it comes to issues like abortion, foreign policy and gun control, Hillary Clinton has an advantage over Sanders, with voters interested in these topics choosing to vote for Hillary over Sanders.
Hillary wants to build on Obama’s pro-abortion record, and has emphasized that ‘Planned Parenthood’ should be funded, supported and protected, and not undermined, misrepresented and demonized. Hillary Clinton also has a clear advantage on issues relating to foreign policy and national security. She has been the first prominent Democratic presidential candidate to openly run on a gun-control platform. Her stance on holding gun manufacturers liable for deaths caused by their products, expanding background checks and prohibiting those on no-fly list from purchasing firearms have given her a competitive edge over Sanders.
On the other hand, issues like climate change and social rights have voters clearly swaying towards Sander’s advantage.
Bernie’s promise to combat climate change, making sure our planet is habitable for future generations, and creating a clean-energy workforce of 10 million good-paying jobs by creating a 100 percent clean energy system, has voters interested in this topic, voting for him over Hillary.
Bernie Sanders has also for long been a frontrunner in the civil rights movement, which has resonated with voters instantly.
When we looked at the top issues that Trump talks about, we found that-
Immigration over-indexes among consumers in the age group of over 65 years, while, economy is more popular among the 25- to 34 year old demographic, and with real estate agents, finance and accountants.
Voter’s professions and which issues affect them
- Voters in the education sector are most interested in topics such as abortion and social rights
- Voters in the age group of 18-34 years are most interested in the social rights issue
- Though the unemployment rate has fallen to 5 percent, from 7.8 percent when Obama took office in 2009, voters in the manufacturing and emergency and armed services are most interested in this topic, as these sectors were the first ones to lose jobs during recession.
Top 6 issues that affect voters with/without children
- Voters without children are most interested in topics such as abortion, climate change and social rights
- Healthcare garnered high interest in voters with children above 16 years than other age groups.
Top Hashtags and what they Say
Trump: Makeamericagreatagain, trump2016, trumptrain
Bernie: FeelTheBern, Bernie2016, notmeus
Hillary: HillaryClinton, imwithher, Hillary2016
While analyzing Twitter handles for each of these candidates, we observed that Trump is the only candidate who tags his slogans and uses hashtags. His followers too tweet using these hashtags. For example, tweets that include hashtags such as “Trump2016”, “Trumptrain” and “Makeamericagreatagain” are hashtags that were created by Trump, which are used by his supporters while tweeting.
With the US Presidential elections heating up, will Sanders’ young supporters give him that clear win, will Hillary’s stance on women issues give her that edge, or will Trump’s strong presence on social media win him the advantage? It is yet to be seen.
Our data however, shows a clear distinction in the voters for all these candidates, and political marketers should push the limit in applying big marketing dollars to digital channels, trying to unlock new, mobile-first millennial voters, while persuading undecided voters through programmatic advertising than ever before.