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Hillary Clinton US Presidential Election Media

US election debate: How Clinton beat Trump and why the American media lives to fight another day

By Matt Spector | Advisor

September 27, 2016 | 7 min read

Stemming a polling slide, a candidate back in the picture – but Trump is not yet vanquished, writes Matthew Spector.

clinton v trump

Last night’s debate at Hofstra University in Long Island dictated a new phase for the campaign, a sobering reminder of the state of a global conversation about progress, and a litmus test of increasing polarization in the States. The fourth estate was on trial as well, as NBC News sought to remake expectations in the role moderator Lester Holt would play. It did not disappoint: Clinton notched a win to dramatically underscore her fitness for the presidency. But among his passionate following, a weakened and now vulnerable Trump survives to fight another day.

It was oddly satisfying to see the two together – American election as sport – but in a split-screen world the sight of the two “together” has become nearly old hat. Both often spoke beyond one another to the massive decades-old personas, but one notion was clear: Trump did indeed not prepare for the debate, at least to the extent his supporters and surrogates claimed, and regardless of political affiliation underperformed expectations in a wholly unexpected year. Clinton’s relaxed shimmy toward the end of the debate reinforced a clear victory – she carried herself with little of the concern that has bedraggled her campaign this month.

At times flustered, at other times attempting to goad Clinton into playing into his game, Trump proved he lives in a realm of non-specifics. Among his half-truths around the realities of murder rates in New York City, the “small loan” from his father, he struggled to elevate bread-and-butter-issues. Trump’s wall and immigration positioning fell by the wayside; the dollar indeed fell against the peso during the debate, reflecting traders’ confidence Trump will not ultimately take office and increase pressure on American companies that spend time abroad. Areas where Trump should have excelled – national security, keeping cities safe – failed. Calling into question Clinton’s fitness, Trump himself suffered from a case of the sniffles, or an early-autumn, New York-area case of the early autumn blues, and it took him too long to admit he would accept as valid the outcome of the election.

Subtle communication tactics and tactical parries were key, and will set the tone for the nearly 40 days left in the campaign: Clinton continues to take the policy-driven high ground with tightly choreographed tricks – her “Trumped up trickle down” hit awkwardly. She appeared presidential and measured even when challenged across issues that have haunted her, from Libya to emails, with prepared remarks and quick retorts to Trump’s attacks. Given Clinton needed to prepare for two Trumps – one presidential, the other unhinged – she deftly vacillated between the two, drawing and dancing circles around him. Outside her broad smile and laugh, Clinton did not have a clear breakaway TV-ready moment, and that might challenge her campaign to keep her positions and coolheadedness in the news cycle in the coming days.

Trump played to the same strengths that have engaged the heartland; whether Trump speaks the truth, he delivers television-ready anecdotes that are easy to understand, ready for news clips and endless repetition in the cycle ahead. As the discussion shifted toward his taxes and his position on Obama’s citizenship, Trump was wholly unready in two areas any reasonably prepared candidate would anticipate. Trump will likely appear today across the news media squawking a win – he is a bully, and the more he can maintain his positioning as aggressor beyond the facts the more appealing his testosterone-fueled aggression appeals to the Americans who have felt left behind.

He faltered consistently: Trump awkwardly claims authority on the issues of the African-American communities, and incorrectly linked Secretary Clinton and her service to directly the rise of ISIS. Trump’s overseas dealings and commitments, his tax issues, all continue to bedevil him, and they form the foundational elements of his public persona. In the same vein, Trump should not have smugly celebrated not paying federal taxes; his admissions give increasingly maligned viewers and supporters even less of a reason to support him. Lies and half-truths, unchecked.

The American media lives to survive another day. Lester Holt held his own, most notably calling out Trump for lies in his support of Iraq and questioning the birther issue, keeping tabs in an unusual debate and managing to slip by without overarticulating the shape of the debate. Given the media’s cautious role – and the Trump campaign’s efforts to cast doubt on the biases of unbiased fact-checkers – Holt did enough to make up for Matt Lauer’s failures during the NBC News Commander-in-Chief Forum this month. As NBC’s Chuck Todd noted, it was as if the media was “now a political candidate” in the way it is being “provoked and prodded” in shepherding the factual, editorial side of the election.

Perhaps next month’s vice presidential debate will matter more in an effort to speak to middle-income Americans who comprise the remaining undecided voters left. Something has been working for Trump, but the comparison between the two shed new light on the shortcomings of one and the leadership potential of another; Trump would frequently speak above and beyond her – Clinton’s risk in the next round is to ensure she does not play the role of defensive wonk but active participant in taking the bully down on his own terms.

It is likely Clinton’s clear intellectual and emotional win last night might not serve to assuage supporters who have been deeply concerned about dwindling poll numbers. It is unlikely Trump’s loss does anything to douse the flames of majority white Americans his entreaties and lies have inspired. Despite the Clinton campaign’s work to reshape the race as a comparison between two unlike leaders, Hillary remains America’s “protest vote,” and Trump did a sufficient job to make this difference clear. Insecurities about Clinton’s role in global affairs, America’s involvements abroad abound, and even kowtowing to China and Russia is par for the course for Team Trump.

After all, it might not matter. Trump confounds expectations at every turn, and every manner Clinton and her team have prepared has seemed thwarted. It was almost surprising to see two sparring partners face to face who for the past year have circled one another in their respective spheres. Their supporters will see each eke out a win as they barely directly acknowledged one another onstage. But will the undecided Americans who truly matter care? Did they watch? Despite what the betting markets tell us about Clinton’s clear success, we will see in the coming weeks the full extent of a wholly unusual political moment.

Matthew Spector advises with brands and communicators around contemporary public affairs and cultural issues as principal of Bow Bridge Consultants.

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