Fred’s poll on Scottish independence reveals hand of middle Scotland
I was at a Fred MacAulay gig last night at the Edinburgh Fringe. Fred took it upon himself to do a straw poll on Independence, asking people where they thought Scotland would be after the vote in 2014.
Did Fred's independence poll hit upon the key to winning the vote?
Stirring up emotions by painting a picture of Sir Chris Hoy securing a massive gold medal haul at the Commonwealth Games, followed by the Scotland football team reaching the Quarter Finals of the World Cup in Brazil, and concluding that we're facing continuous re-runs of Braveheart on telly that year, I was expecting a partisan response.
Just two out of the 152 paying customers polled said Independence was coming to Scotland. That's 1.3%. The audience was generally speaking over 35 years old (it seems Fred's Legally Bald strapline is not exclusively self-referential) and with nobody answering Fred’s plea for a non-Scot or even non-Brit to come forward (he had an American gag), it is safe to assume that the majority of ‘voters’ in his poll could be eligible to vote in 2014.
Perhaps this is unsurprising to some, but it surprised me. After all, Fred MacAulay is a proud Scot, and whatever his personal slant on independence, he did try to stir up the crowd, even if it was tongue in cheek (and very funny).
Is this the Olympic effect? An unintended after effect of the so-called Olympic Bounce?
Or is it a deeply rooted sense amongst middle Scotland that the country is better off with the United Kingdom, than without it?
Perhaps the most telling moment of this mini hiatus in Fred’s set (which was very good by the way) was when the whole room agreed that the vote would be won on sentiment, not on economics or social policy. I have always subscribed to this view. But last night I realised for the first time that perhaps that sentiment isn’t as wholeheartedly bent on independence as one might have expected – not at least amongst some of the country’s more mature voters. People seemed really quite underwhelmed by the prospect.
What this means for those fighting the battle in the streets of Banff, Perth, Falkirk and all those other small but crucial towns in Scotland, I do not know. They will have much more scientific data than a straw poll at a comedy gig. But there is significance there – I’m sure of it. After all, around three million Scots are over the age of 35.
Middle Scotland is not a phrase you hear on the radio or read in the papers with any frequency. But if those taking the Independence debate to our doorsteps can win the hearts of middle Scotland, whoever they are, perhaps that could be the winning ticket after all.
P.S. Go and see Fred in action – 60 minutes of joy.