Trump’s plans could be bad for retail and restaurants, good for tech
Donald Trump’s surprising (to some) win in the election leaves a lot up in the air, especially when it comes to fiscal policy. Where Hillary spelled out a detailed economic plan, Trump remained general about his own policy, to the point where no one really knows what it will entail.
A story in the Business Insider by Haley Peterson notes that his economics may prove disastrous to the retail and food industry, where there is a potential for losing many consumers as a result of Trump’s immigration policies, which he shouted out loudly on the campaign trail. Deporting undocumented immigrants, which is up to 10 million people, would scour the low end of the consumer base and low-wage earners. Plus, consumer demand for labor will still be high, and without those undocumented workers, many positions could go unfilled, meaning crops may not be picked as one example.
Some proposed policies, including income tax reductions and corporate tax reductions, could boost spending and the economy, but it’s unclear whether implementation of those policies would be feasible, especially since we have no solid details.
"The policies proposed by Trump would theoretically support an increase in high-income consumer spending, but elevated economic policy uncertainty, as well as a possible deportation-linked decline in consumer demand and labor under a Trump presidency would counteract the consumer spending benefit from lower taxes," Morgan Stanley US consumer economist Paula Campbell Roberts wrote.
Tech bump?
Marketplace Tech host Ben Johnson talked with Marketplace senior tech correspondent Molly Wood about how Trump’s policies will impact the tech sector. Johnson noted that Trump said this on the campaign trail: “We're gonna get Apple to start building their damn computers and things in this country instead of in other countries.”
If Trump can do what he says, it would be a boon to US workers, but the reality of that happening may not be there.
“It's pretty hard to make a company do something. But there are certainly incentives that could be enacted. There are obviously tax incentives. There are potentially regulations, or lifting of regulation that might make it easier to bring jobs back to the United States.”
Wood went on to say that some of the jobs Trump claim were lost to overseas were actually lost to automation, which could be a huge issue.
On the flip side, Trump has stated that he wants to close the internet in some areas as a security measure, part of his plan to make America safe again. Wood said that the tech industry is concerned about that issue, but since it’s not official policy, it’s confusing to know what might actually happen.
Regardless, a Trump presidency will change the conversation on technology. Stay tuned to see what policies actually take hold.