Donald Trump has far more momentum than the polls suggest according to social media analysis
Although the polls have favored Hillary Clinton for months, an article claims that the momentum is with Donald Trump on social media using a crowd-integrated sentiment driven research approach, and the data predicts some very different results for the US Presidential election.
According to Brandseye, which has noted a more positive sentiment for Donald Trump nationwide despite the polls, the analysis points to Clinton’s high negative sentiment (only bested in polling history by Trump himself) along with Trump’s residual strength in some important states. Further, despite Trump’s gaffes and controversies, the underlying structure of this election was always going to make for a close race, the article notes.
Trump currently holds significant margins over Clinton in positive sentiment on social media — as well as in a battleground state such as Michigan, which is meant to form part of Clinton’s ‘fire-wall’ of states out of Trump’s reach.
The analysis seems to suggest that Trump’s negatives may have been “baked in” to voters’ appraisal of him. His skeletons probably came as no surprise to many, and, as an outsider figure, he has always had a high threshold in terms of the leeway the public has given him. It perhaps serves to remind the electorate that he is indeed not a polished and consultant-coached politician.
To summarize, the momentum is with Trump. The question of why this shocking social media data does not seem to be reflecting in the traditional polls, one should remember that the polls failed to call Brexit and polling after all is not freely volunteered information. Additionally, the article suggests that even Google's consumer surveys have tended to lag behind social media sentiment. For Clinton supporters, although social media is reflecting the voices of highly enthusiastic activists and partisans, with her superior campaign organization and “ground game” she may prevail.
However, there can be no doubt that Clinton is uncertain of victory… And that Trump is still on the move.