Is the tablet really dead? No one but Blackberry's boss seems to think so
You may have taken it with a pinch of salt, but when Blackberry's boss decided to make a statement as bold as predicting the imminent death of the tablet computer, you have to pause and consider just what his thinking might have been at the time.
Competitors such as Dell, Samsung, Microsoft and of course Apple have all gone down the tablet route, but Blackberry has stuck mostly to its phone products, perhaps to its detriment.
At Milken Institute's Global Conference 2013 in Los Angeles, Blackberry CEO Thorsten Heins claimed that he couldn't see why people have a need for a tablet in five years' time. "Maybe a big screen in your workspace, but not a tablet as such. Tablets themselves are not a good business model."
So we probably shouldn't expect any major Blackberry product announcements this year in the tablet area.
Jon Mew, director of mobile and operations at the IAB, outlined some research to The Drum about the "staggering" growth in tablet adoption over the last year that appears to rebuff Heins' prediction. He stated that penetration had more than doubled from 10 per cent to 22 per cent in that time.
"It shows no signs of slowing and one of the biggest digital challenges brands will face in the next year is how to deal with the majority of traffic and advertising impressions being on mobile devices," Mew said.
Albion CEO Jason Goodman, who has seen the growth in tablet adoption as a marketer first hand, is highly skeptical as to the motives behind Heins' tablet bashing. He said: "Heins' thoughts on the future of tablets don't sync with whats going on in the broader computing market place.
"Tablets have radically changed how people engage with their PC and no doubt large scale mobile computing is very much here to stay. I wonder if Blackberry had a leading tablet product whether he would be taking this position?"
Far from something to be dismissed, tablets have already had a signifcant impact on consumer behaviour and content production, according to Bite's head of innovation Justin Pearse.
"While not being the panacea many in the publishing industry, Rupert Murdoch included, originally painted it as, the rise of tablets has undoubtedly provided a massive boost to all sectors of the content and advertising industries," Pearse said.
"They have quickly become one of consumers' key internet experiences. The number of devices from which consumers access the web continues to grow at a huge rate. Indeed, recent research from our client Netbiscuits, based on over 1bn web pages, found impressions on set top boxes and internet TVs up 138 per cent. This didn't happen at the expense of tablet traffic but in addition, demonstrating the huge range of devices that are now part of consumers' everyday connected life. So, while tablets will undoubtedly evolve in form factor and capabilities, we have in fact only scratched the surface of the massive behavioural changes they are likely to enable and engender."
Richard Morris, managing director of Vizeum UK, sees no sign of brands' interest in tablets abating. "Tablets are fuelling massive growth in mobile communications, and the growth in tablet interaction has been exponential for many of our clients in the last six months," Morris said. "We are certainly planning for a future where this trend continues."
Craig Le Grice, global technology performance director at Aegis Media, accepts that one day tablets will be replace by a future piece of innovation. However for now he expects several more generations of the tablet to be developed before they are rendered defunct.
"Tablets are here to stay for the medium term for all of us - including those working in digital and technology," Le Grice said. "But consumers outside of the industry will take much longer to adopt the 'next next' so I expect to see high mass usage until 2020.
"I'm not sure any of us can look to BlackBerry as a barometer for the future. It, as a company, has proven detrimental inability to gauge the market's direction many times over. This feels a little sensationalist for sensationalism's sake."
So Heins has either offered the most prophetic piece of insight of his life, or he's successfully attempted to generate some headlines. Whatever his thinking, it seems that unless the rest of the world and the research to go with it is wrong, tablets aren't going anywhere, other than continually into consumers' homes.