Consumer Confidence Forecast – September 2012
The monthly Consumer Confidence Forecast from Union Direct and JGFR.
Creative Review:
General Situation
For the first time in five months there is a change in the general situation. Headline GfK consumer confidence rose one point to -28, its best level since June 2011. Disappointingly there has been no feel-good bounce this summer despite some of the most memorable lifetime events.
While nearly 70% of the population, up from 47% in June believe the Olympics / Paralympics has brought the population together and made the nation feel happier this mood is not reflected in headline sentiment or any surge in optimism. Since July the combined measure of optimism about personal finances and the general economic situation is up three points and two points on 12 months ago – but unchanged on May.
People are still under increasing pressure financially with more people having to dip into savings. The proportion of households currently saving (35%) is well below a year ago (42%)
Outlook
As in August the jobs picture continues to look brighter. Inflation expectations increased sharply however. Spending confidence is unchanged on the month while savings confidence weakened further. There is a growing gap between households financial outlook across income bands.
Higher earners have seen a big bounce in confidence, with a surge in spending confidence. The quarterly Financial Activity Barometer running alongside consumer confidence shows greater housing and investment market activity in prospect in the coming months.
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