Carat decreases global adspend forecast to an increase of 5% for 2011
Media communications agency Carat has downgraded its prediction of growth in global advertising spend for 2011 to 5% and also predicated spending growth of 6% next year.
The forecast by Carat says that its data shows that advertising expenditure will continue to grow this year by 5%, having previously predicted that it would grow by 5.7% in March, as a result of natural disasters, macro-economic factors and political instability within sections of the world.
Next year is likely to be supported through events such the US presidential elections, the 2012 Olympics and the UEFA European Football Championship.
Digital was found to be the ‘driving force’ within the market, between both out-of-home and television markets with 13.3% growth predicted for digital this year, and 14.4% for next.
In comparison, growth in television is expected to be 6% this year and 6.2% in 2012, while newspapers will see a 0.1%, followed by 0.6% the following year. Out-of-home will see a growth of 6.3% in 2011 and 8.1% in 2012. With cinema growing by 5.2% this year and 3.8% next year, and radio increasing by 4% and 5.5% for this year and next, also.
Latin America is the largest regional increase forecast, with it expected to see spend increases of 13% for 2011 and 12.9% for 2012, while North America will grow 3.2% this year and 5.5% next year.
West Europe is predicted to increase in 2011 by 2.3%, and increase again to 3% next year, while Central and Eastern Europe is expected to see rises of 10.1% (2011) and 11.6% over the next year.
Television will continue to have the bulk of advertising spend in 2011 at 46% and 46.1% next year.
Jerry Buhlmann, chief executive of Aegis Group, Carat’s parent company, commented: "Carat's updated global ad forecasts demonstrate that the recovery in most major advertising markets has continued in 2011 and is set to continue in 2012, against the backdrop of uncertain times. The impact of global macro-economic and political issues, combined with natural disasters, has led us to soften the full-year outlook for 2011 and 2012.
"At the heart of the market, the long-term trend of the two-speed advertising world and the rapid growth of digital are very much in force. The faster-growing regions of the world - particularly China, Russia and Latin America - will continue to eclipse performances from the developed economies. In terms of the growth in media share digital remains the leader of the pack, with Out of Home and TV growing faster than the overall market.
"Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic, particularly about the outlook of 2012, when global events such as the Olympics will undoubtedly fuel advertising demand."