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Analysts forecast growth for TV advertising market

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By The Drum Team, Editorial

April 8, 2010 | 3 min read

The TV advertising market will recover from a tough 2009 and grow by 4.6% this year according to industry analysts.

Screen Digest says all the major TV broadcasters will end 2010 with "significant increases in TV ad revenue" and the market will grow 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2010. But this growth will not be sustained across the whole year.

Advertising scheduled around the football World Cup in June, marketing strategies placing an emphasis on the first six months of 2010 and tougher year-on-year comparisons with the second half of 2009, mean that across the year the growth figure will be 4.6 per cent, Screen Digest said.

In 2009 ITV’s revenues fell 9% year on year, Channel 4's 10.5%, Channel Five's 23% and BSkyB's 8%.

The 2010 outlook from Screen Digest forecasts increases for iTV by 4.6% from £1.3bn to £1.4bn; Channel by 4.8% from £706m to £740m; Five by 4.2% to £251m and BSkyB by 4.7% to £295m.

Screen Digest said its outlook has been influenced by the COI, the UK’s single biggest advertiser, having to restrict its airtime buying for 12 weeks starting six weeks before the general election in May. This will slow growth in Q2, bringing it in line with the 7% rate of the previous quarter. Depending on the winner of the election, COI is likely to be spending either less – or considerably less – on advertising.

Daniel Knapp, advertising analyst at Screen Digest, said: “Advertising demand and marketers’ confidence is clearly up so far this year.

"2010 is going to be an interesting year for TV advertising - the football World Cup, the general election and the trend for marketers to plan their campaigns in the first half of the year, combined with favourable year-on-year comparisons with an exceptionally tough previous year, mean that making forecasts for 2010 is a hard job, but we’re cautiously optimistic that the UK market will grow 4.6 per cent, and that is a good performance in these challenging times.”

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